My Election Day Bet

Now, I’m not a betting man, but if I was, this is what I wager happens on Election Day. For the record, I called it for Trump early in 2016 and Biden in 2020. I’ve also lived in America long enough to know how dumb and racist it can be….

I bet that Harris wins a narrow but decisive electoral victory. Latinos, Gen Z women, older white women, and Black women carry her to the finish line, with anti-Trump conservatives nudging her over. Trump’s superpower is persuading people he’s a winner and inevitable, but in both business and elections, he’s often a big loser. His MAGA movement is potent, but it’s also inept and racist and abortion is its Achille’s heel—all this caused big losses in 2020 and 2022. They did nothing different this time. He refused to just allow COVID amnesia or inflation to bring in enough new voters. Instead, he insulted and activated voters the polls may have missed, like Puerto Rican abuelas. New, young voters have never had an election without him, and their culture is more aligned with her. She sold part of her soul by collaborating with war criminals like Dick Cheney, but America tends to reward those sales.

He’ll try to steal it again, but he’s weaker outside of the White House this time, and she won’t go down without a vicious fight (unlike Al Gore in 2000).

Domestic terrorism, Middle East atrocities, and foreign interference are still wild cards, but I bet she takes it.

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Finally…this was the election that radicalized me twenty years ago. LGBTQ issues and immigration were at the forefront then too. So much of my work in activism and politics stems from this specific loss. It’s crucial to remember that regardless of the outcome, young people are watching and learning.

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More political writings and Queer sex as a political act in Analog Cruising and POST.